By Samuele Milone[1]
Introduction
Rural communities in developing countries face unique challenges when climate shocks disrupt their livelihoods. In Thailand, where rice cultivation underpins both the economy and food security, droughts have wide-reaching implications. This essay summarises findings from a study investigating how drought affects children’s education in rural Thailand, focusing on enrolment and grade delay, while highlighting the vulnerabilities of agricultural households.
Data and Methodology
This study draws on the Thailand Vietnam Socio-Economic Panel (TVSEP), a dataset encompassing nine waves of household and village surveys conducted from 2007 to 2022. The sample comprises over 3,000 individuals and more than 8,000 observations across 220 villages in 45 districts. Drought exposure was identified through self-reported shocks experienced in the previous year, while a dummy variable for agricultural households was constructed based on rice production. Households producing less than 25% of rice for personal consumption were categorised as market oriented.
To analyse the effects of drought on educational outcomes, a multilevel regression model was employed, with individuals nested within villages. Random intercepts at the village level accounted for unobserved heterogeneity, and standard errors were clustered at the district level. Three model specifications progressively introduced control variables, including household size, parental education, and village characteristics, to isolate drought’s impact and its interactions with household agricultural dependence.
Results
The findings reveal no significant impact of drought on school enrolment, suggesting that families may prioritise education even under economic strain, and that schools in affected areas may ensure consistent access. However, drought does affect grade delays, particularly for farming households reliant on rice production. In these families, the likelihood of grade delay reaches 20%, with the effect magnified during severe droughts.
The impact varies by education level: while primary education remains unaffected, drought increases the risk of grade delay by 25% in lower-secondary school and 37% in upper-secondary school. These findings underscore the compounded vulnerability of agricultural households and the growing educational disparities as students’ progress through higher school levels.
Policy Implications
The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to mitigate drought’s educational impact on farming communities. For rice-farming households affected by severe droughts, direct support measures—such as educational subsidies or conditional cash transfers—can help offset financial strain and prevent grade delays. Upper-secondary students, who face the highest risk, should be prioritised in these interventions.
In addition to short-term relief, long-term strategies must strengthen rural communities’ resilience to climate shocks. Investments in drought-resilient agricultural practices, such as improved irrigation systems and climate-adaptive crops, are essential to stabilise livelihoods and indirectly support educational outcomes. Policymakers must also integrate educational and agricultural policies with climate action, addressing interconnected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): promoting climate resilience (SDG 13), safeguarding food security (SDG 2), and ensuring inclusive and equitable education (SDG 4). Lastly, robust monitoring frameworks are necessary to evaluate the educational impacts of climate shocks over time and refine policies accordingly.
Conclusion
While drought does not appear to significantly affect school enrolment, its impact on grade delays reveals the vulnerability of farming households to climate shocks, particularly those reliant on rice production. Older students are disproportionately affected, highlighting the compounded challenges faced during critical educational transitions.
Effective policy responses must balance immediate relief measures with long-term resilience-building strategies. By safeguarding rural livelihoods and addressing both economic and educational vulnerabilities, policymakers can help secure a better future for children in farming households while strengthening the overall resilience of rural communities to an increasingly unpredictable climate.
[1] Researcher at the University of Florence,
